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| 308 Approach misguided: Build beachheads |
| 11.20.08 (2:53 pm) [edit] |
|
Dean’s point was that if the Democrats only focused on just at States the Democrats were competitive in 2004 and wrote the rest off to bad debts, fundraising numbers would be retarded and more importantly so too would the party’s potential to grow their base of support in these States. The Dean plan makes sense in so far as there are huge pools of Democratic voters in the redest of states and party can use these pool of voters as beach head and slowly move out from where these voters are concentrated to counties beyond. The Democrats took 42% of the vote in South in 2004. The way this has been translated into a Canadian context is that the Liberals should not be writing off ridings, but should aim to be competitive in all 308 ridings. This is no plan at all. It is pie in the sky. An ideal is not a plan. Yes, the Liberals should be looking to establish and or reinforce beachheads in provinces in which they have historically not been strong. Edmonton and Calgary are a great case in point. Sooner our latter Albertans will follow the rest of the country and stop voting down strictly regional lines. Indeed, there may be signs that they may be starting to do just that. Edmonton Strathcona should have gone NDP given its demographic makeup and for once did. However, the Liberals should not dream of being competitive in huge swaths of BC, and Alberta and any time soon. Outside of the major urban centers in these two provinces the Liberals were fighting it with the Greens for 4th place in 2008. The Greens beat them in 8 seats in BC and 10 in Alberta. To further complicate matters is this. There are three major parties in Canada and not two. Now, I know this does not mesh with some people’s belief that the left right spectrum drives voting patterns, but historically, Western rural voters swing between the NDP and the conservative party de jour. Moreover, there are slew of working class neighborhoods (e.g., Surrey North, Nanaimo Cowichan) were voters do the same. The Conservative’s loss is not likely going to be the Liberal’s gain. |
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