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| Seat Projections |
| 10.13.08 (2:00 pm) [edit] |
|
Large numbers of former Liberal voters in urban Ontario and BC will vote Green. The NDP and Liberals will see a slight uptake in support in Quebec as Conservative voters migrate to the Bloc to replace Bloc supporters migrating to the NDP and Liberals in Montreal. The Conservatives will make gains in Winnipeg, the Lowermainland, and the 905. Liberal looses in Northern Ontario are the NDP’s gain. The Conservatives will loose their stranglehold on Quebec City to the Bloc With the electorate unhappy and uninterested, the number of Canadians voting will reach historic lows Voter Turnout 58% Popular Vote Conservatives 34.5 (-1.5) Liberals 27 (-3) NDP 19 (+1.5) Bloc 10.5 Greens 8 (+3.5) Canada Conservatives 138 (+14) Liberals 75 (-28) Bloc 53 (+2) NDP 40 (+11) Independents 2 (+1) BC Conservatives 23 (+6) NDP 9 (-1) Liberals 4 (-5) Alberta Conservatives 28 Saskatchewan Conservatives 12 Liberals 1 (-1) NDP 1 (+1) Manitoba Conservatives 10 (+2) NDP 4 (+1) Liberals (-3) Ontario Liberals 37 (-17) Conservatives 50 (+10) NDP 19 (+7) Quebec Bloc 53 (+2) Conservatives 6 (-4) Liberals 14 (+1) NDP 1 (+1) Independents 1 New Brunswick Liberals 4 (-2) Conservatives 5 (+2) NDP 1 Novo Scotia Liberals 5 (-1) Conservatives 2 NDP 3 Independents 1 (+1) PEI Liberals 4 Newfoundland Liberals 5 (+1) NDP 1 (+1) Conservatives 1 (-2) NWT NDP Yukon Liberals Nunavut Conservatives (+1) (Liberals -1) Conservatives: seat pick ups 1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals 2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals 3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals 4) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals 5) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals 6) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals 7) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals 8) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals 9) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals 10) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals 11) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals 12) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals 13) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals 14) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals 15) Conservatives pick up Halton from Liberals 16) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals 17) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals 1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens 1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP 2) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP Liberals: seat pick ups 1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives 1) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP 1) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc 2) Liberals pick up Ahuntsic form the Bloc NDP: seat pick ups 1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals 2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals 3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals 4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals 5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals 6) NDP pick up Welland from Liberals 7) NDP pick up Kenora from Liberals 1) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives(Liberal win 2006) 2) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson) 3) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives 4) NDP pick up Oshawa from the Conservatives 5) NDP pick up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar from Conservatives 6) NDP pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's from Conservatives Bloc: seat pick ups 1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives 2) Bloc pick up Louis Hebert from Conservatives 3) Bloc pick up Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint- Charles from Conservatives 4) Bloc pick up Beauport-Limoilou from Conservatives 5) Bloc pick up Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean from Conservatives
|
posted by: Red and Proud (reply)
post date: 10.13.08 (2:32 pm)
I think you are understating the Liberal count. Just about every seat predictor has them higher. I suggest, in particular, that you take a look at Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project. He predicted the last election with more than 90 per cent accuracy and missed the call on only 12 ridings. Here are his current predictions:
CONS: 125
LIBS: 94
BLOC: 51
NDP: 36
GRN: 0
IND: 2
You might also want to take a look at Democratic Space or Trendlines Research.
The current prediction from Democratic Space:
CONS: 128
LIBS: 92
BLOC: 52
NDP: 34
GRN: 0
IND: 2
And, finally, the current prediction from Trendlines Research :
CONS: 131
LIBS: 105
BLOC: 42
NDP: 28
GRN: 0
IND: 2
posted by: Mohamed (reply)
post date: 10.13.08 (2:46 pm)
I have a pretty close projection to you
CPC 138
Libs 80
NDP 36
Bloc 52
Ind 2
Nunavut will remain Liberal and one of the st john's riddings will go to the libs and 2 ridding in Manitoba will remain Liberal
posted by: koby (reply)
post date: 10.13.08 (6:42 pm)
I have St John's South Mount Pearl going Liberal. I realize that democratic space and election prediction project have it closer and it might very well be. I certainly hope so. However, I would be surprised to see the Liberals hold onto Ontario and both show that. Indeed, given how they are polling in the North and the fact that huge numbers of ethnic voters are thinking about switching from the Liberals to the Cons, I suspect the Liberals will loose seats in both the 905 and Northern Ontario.